Myanmar Prepares for Controversial Elections Amid Ongoing Conflict

Myanmar’s military government is planning to conduct staggered general elections starting on December 28 and concluding in late January. The military rulers aim to stabilize the country and alleviate their growing diplomatic isolation. This electoral process comes despite a violent civil war that erupted following the military coup in February 2021, which has led to significant turmoil and suffering across the nation.

Since the coup, the military has employed severe measures against civilians, including indiscriminate bombings, mass incarcerations, and displacing millions. Humanitarian organizations report that over 11 million people are currently facing food insecurity, as the military attempts to regain control over territories lost to opposition forces. This backdrop raises serious questions about the legitimacy of the upcoming elections.

At a recent summit of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in Malaysia, United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres expressed skepticism about the possibility of free and fair elections in Myanmar. He stated, “Is there anyone who believes that there will be free and fair elections in Myanmar? It is quite obvious that in the present state of conflict… the conditions for free and fair elections are not there.”

To influence the electoral outcome, the military has enacted a controversial law banning what it deems “interference” in the electoral process. Human Rights Watch reported in November that nearly 100 individuals had been detained under this law. By the following week, this number reportedly increased to over 200, with some detained for criticizing the election process on social media or even merely ‘liking’ posts that question the military’s authority. Many face lengthy prison sentences for challenging what military leader Min Aung Hlaing admits will not be a comprehensive election, as numerous contested and rebel-held areas will remain unrepresented.

Most Western governments have refrained from sending election observers, condemning the process as a “sham.” Critics argue that the military’s true objective is to establish a parliament dominated by its proxy party, the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP). This party suffered a significant defeat in the 2020 elections at the hands of the National League for Democracy (NLD), led by Aung San Suu Kyi, who remains incarcerated alongside other party leaders.

In recent months, the military has attempted to regain control over territory lost to opposition forces, which analysts believe could bolster its electoral prospects. Morgan Michaels, a security analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) in Singapore, notes that the military has regained the initiative in several key areas, partly due to a conscription campaign and enhanced military tactics, including the use of drones.

China, one of the few countries to endorse the upcoming elections alongside Russia and India, has a vested interest in Myanmar’s stability. Yun Sun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center, explains that while China is not fond of the military regime, it prefers stability to chaos, as ongoing conflict threatens its significant infrastructure investments in Myanmar.

Sun adds, “If you think about the China-Myanmar economic corridor, the key word here is corridor. When the country is in a civil war, the China-Myanmar economic corridor leads to nothing.” Consequently, China views the military as a necessary entity to maintain order, pressuring ethnic armed organizations to relinquish territory captured from the regime.

The fragmentation among opposition groups further complicates the situation. Many of these groups are struggling to maintain cohesive strategies, and fatigue among young fighters is becoming apparent. Analyst Min Zaw Oo observes that some young recruits are leaving the armed struggle for better opportunities abroad, indicating a decline in morale.

Despite these challenges, some remain committed to resisting military rule. Rebel commander Ko Ta Mar, a former doctor turned fighter, expresses frustration at the lack of direction among opposition forces. He believes that the elections represent a temporary solution that will ultimately exacerbate the situation, stating, “If you see the crisis in the country as a disease, the election is like injecting steroids into a patient. The pain can be eased temporarily, but it will be worse in the long term.”

As the military prepares for the elections, many citizens are seeking any semblance of relief from their ongoing hardships. Longtime analyst David Mathieson suggests that the shadow National Unity Government, which succeeded the ousted government, is losing credibility among the populace. He notes, “There’s a growing sense of look, it’s not about the elections, it’s about what kind of regime, quasi-civilian government comes afterwards.”

With the second and third rounds of elections scheduled for January, the military is betting that a semblance of order might allow it to regain some legitimacy both domestically and internationally. The unfolding situation in Myanmar remains complex and fraught with uncertainty as the country approaches these pivotal elections.