Iowa Voters Decide State Senate Seat in Key Special Election

Voters in Iowa’s West Des Moines area will head to the polls on Tuesday to select a new state senator. This special election follows the death of three-term Democratic state Senator Claire Celsi on October 6. The outcome could enable Iowa Republicans to regain a significant supermajority in the state Senate, reinforcing their control over state governance.

Democrat Renee Hardman, a current member of the West Des Moines City Council and serving as mayor pro tempore, faces off against Republican Lucas Loftin, who is employed by an environmental and outdoor services company. The election is critical as Republicans currently hold a dominant 33-16 advantage in the state Senate, just one seat shy of achieving the 34 needed for a supermajority.

A supermajority in Iowa allows the party to override gubernatorial vetoes, call special sessions, and confirm certain gubernatorial appointments. Republicans already maintain a supermajority in the Iowa House of Representatives.

The 16th state Senate district encompasses areas such as West Des Moines, Windsor Heights, and Clive, along with a precinct in eastern Dallas County. In the most recent election, Celsi was reelected with a commanding 69% of the vote. Notably, in the 2024 presidential race, Kamala Harris received approximately 58% of the District 16 vote, while Donald Trump garnered around 41%, winning only one of the district’s 23 precincts.

The Associated Press has stated that it will declare a winner only when it can confirm that there are no remaining scenarios that would allow trailing candidates to close the gap. In instances where a race remains uncalled, the AP will continue to report on significant developments, such as candidate concessions or victory announcements.

Iowa does not have an automatic recount law; however, candidates may request a recount at their own expense. Candidates are not required to pay for recounts when the margin of victory is less than 1% of the total vote or fewer than 50 votes. The AP may also declare a winner in a race eligible for a recount if it determines that the lead is insurmountable.

What to Expect on Election Day

The special election for Iowa’s state Senate District 16 will take place on Tuesday, with polls closing at 20:00 local time (21:00 ET). This election marks the only contest on the ballot.

Voters registered in state Senate District 16 are eligible to participate. As of December 1, 2023, nearly 45,000 voters were registered in the district, with approximately 37% identifying as Democrats, 30% as Republicans, and 32% as unaffiliated with any party.

In the previous District 16 race during the 2024 general election, turnout was around 67% of registered voters, significantly boosted by the presidential race. Approximately 62% of voters cast their ballots in person on Election Day, while around 38% voted absentee.

Vote counting typically begins immediately after polls close. In the 2024 general election, the AP reported initial results at 21:22 ET, just 22 minutes post-closure. The election night tabulation concluded at 23:00 ET, with nearly 99% of total votes counted by that time.

As election day approaches, the outcome of this special election will be closely monitored, as it holds significant implications for both parties within the state.