Gold Surges Past $4,500: Bull Run Expected to Continue into 2026

UPDATE: Gold prices have just surged past $4,500 per ounce, marking a historic milestone as the metal’s rally shows no signs of slowing down. Trading at around $4,490 per ounce, this surge reflects a structural shift in the gold market driven by a weaker dollar, policy uncertainty, and increased central bank demand.

Analysts and banks are increasingly optimistic, projecting that gold’s bull run could extend well into 2026 even without the catalyst of a major financial crisis. The yellow metal is wrapping up 2025 with its best performance since 1979, boasting more than a 70% increase year-to-date.

Experts are highlighting that the drivers behind this gold rally are fundamentally structural rather than merely reactive. According to Farah Mourad, a market analyst at IG, “Gold doesn’t need a crisis to rise in 2026. It simply needs the world to behave the way it has been: elevated debt, policy uncertainty, fragile alliances, and a dollar that no longer dominates as it once did.” Mourad emphasizes that in such an environment, “gold doesn’t chase fear — it absorbs it.”

Looking ahead, analysts report that major banks forecast gold prices to remain within the $4,500 to $4,700 range next year, with potential to reach $5,000 if macroeconomic conditions remain favorable. As inflation persists and growth remains uneven, markets are increasingly expecting interest rates to decline, which typically benefits gold as a non-yielding asset.

However, risks remain. A stronger rebound in the U.S. dollar or a significant shift back to risk-on sentiment could impact gold’s upward trajectory. Yet, Mourad notes that investor positioning in gold is relatively balanced, indicating that the market is not yet overcrowded.

Moreover, Ewa Manthey, a commodities strategist at ING, echoes this sentiment, stating, “We see gold prices hitting more record highs in 2026.” Manthey identified factors such as President Donald Trump’s potential Fed chair nomination, which could lean towards lower interest rates, as supportive of gold prices. She added, “We expect the downside to be limited as any weakness will likely attract renewed interest from both retail and institutional buyers.”

Wall Street heavyweight Goldman Sachs predicts gold prices could soar to $4,900 per ounce by December 2026. This year’s gold surge has not only benefited gold itself but also positively impacted other precious metals. Spot silver prices have reached record highs, trading approximately 147% higher year-to-date at around $72 per ounce, while platinum has surged about 159% this year, trading around $2,342 per ounce.

As the market continues to evolve, investors are advised to stay alert to these developing trends. The dynamics of gold pricing could be pivotal for both seasoned and new investors as we move into another year of potential opportunity. Stay tuned for further updates as this story unfolds.