GLP-1 Drugs Reshape Food Spending Patterns in the US

The growing use of GLP-1 receptor agonist medications, such as Ozempic, is significantly altering food purchasing habits among American consumers. A comprehensive study conducted by researchers at Cornell University reveals that households using these weight-loss drugs are reducing their grocery expenditures and shifting their dietary preferences, thereby impacting the food industry.

The research, utilizing transaction data from Numerator, which monitors grocery and restaurant purchases from around 150,000 US households, examined spending changes before and after the initiation of GLP-1 treatment. By correlating this data with surveys assessing the medication usage of household members, the team identified notable trends in food spending and consumption patterns.

Within six months of beginning a GLP-1 regimen, households reported an average grocery spending decrease of 5.3%, with higher-income families cutting back by 8%. Fast-food and specialty restaurants also experienced a decline, with sales dropping roughly 8%. According to Sylvia Hristakeva of the Cornell SC Johnson College of Business, “The data show clear changes in food spending following adoption.” After ceasing the medication, the patterns of purchasing became less distinct from previous spending behaviors.

One of the most striking findings is the significant reduction in purchases of ultra-processed and calorie-dense foods. Sales of sweets and savory snacks fell by about 10%, reflecting the appetite-suppressing effects of GLP-1 drugs. Surprisingly, essential items such as eggs and meat also saw decreased sales. Conversely, certain products gained popularity, with yogurt experiencing the most substantial increase in sales, alongside fresh fruit, nutritional bars, and meat-based snacks. Hristakeva noted, “The main pattern is a reduction in overall food purchases,” emphasizing that only a small number of categories showed modest increases relative to the overall decline.

As the adoption of GLP-1 medications escalates, the number of US households with at least one member on such treatment increased from 11% in late 2023 to over 16% by mid-2024. The study also indicated that approximately one-third of participants stopped using the medications during the observation period, which led to a reversion to previous shopping habits characterized by less healthy food choices and greater quantities.

This shift in consumer demand appears poised for long-term implications. Researchers predict that by 2035, around 24 million Americans will be on GLP-1 therapy. Companies in the food sector are already strategizing to retain these consumers, with a focus on marketing products tailored for medication users. “These medications are both a risk and opportunity for the food industry,” stated Justin Shimek, CEO of food innovation firm Mattson, during a recent webinar. He emphasized the potential for significant disruption within the sector.

Research from Mattson indicates that GLP-1 users are consuming 66% less soda and alcohol, while 93% are opting for smaller meal sizes, and over 60% report thinking about food less frequently. In anticipation of these shifts, food giant Conagra Brands has begun labeling its Healthy Choice products as “GLP-1 Friendly,” despite no changes to the meals themselves. This suggests a trend of superficial marketing aimed at positioning products as suitable for a health-conscious consumer base.

The Cornell study highlights that while direct causation between GLP-1 usage and changes in food spending could not be definitively established, evidence from clinical trials and shifts in purchasing after medication discontinuation imply that appetite suppression significantly influences consumer behavior.

In a report from Morgan Stanley, analysts expressed optimism regarding the resilience of restaurants and specialty food outlets. They noted that dining experiences often transcend basic nutrition, providing convenience and ambiance. Yet, there are concerns that these establishments may face declining sales in the medium term as consumer preferences evolve. Brian Harbour, who oversees coverage of US restaurants and food distributors at Morgan Stanley, stated, “Many chains will evolve over time to respond to consumer tastes,” highlighting the need for adaptation in an ever-changing marketplace.

The findings of this research, published in the Journal of Marketing Research, underscore the importance of understanding these demand shifts to accurately assess the food market and consumer spending patterns. As the landscape of food purchasing continues to transform, businesses will need to navigate these changes carefully to meet the evolving needs of their customers.