Jamaica’s Economy Plummets 11-13% After Hurricane Melissa Devastation

Jamaica’s economy is poised for a significant contraction of 11-13% in the fourth quarter of 2025 due to the devastating impact of Hurricane Melissa. The Category 5 hurricane, which struck the region in late 2025, has severely affected critical industries and infrastructure, raising concerns about the country’s economic stability. The Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ) announced this projection during a press briefing on November 25, 2025.

At the PIOJ’s hybrid quarterly briefing, Director General Dr. Wayne Henry highlighted that prior to the hurricane, Jamaica was experiencing strong economic growth, with an estimated 3.1% increase projected for the first half of the fiscal year. This growth was expected to continue throughout the second half, but the impact of Hurricane Melissa has disrupted this trajectory.

The PIOJ forecasts that the entire 2025/2026 fiscal year will see a contraction between 3-6%. Dr. Henry emphasized that the hurricane’s aftermath could mark Jamaica’s most severe economic downturn since the COVID-19 pandemic, specifically referencing the quarter of April to June 2020, which recorded significant economic losses.

Hurricane Melissa’s Economic Toll

The hurricane inflicted extensive damage across the island, with destruction reported in homes, power grids, roads, and water infrastructure. Agriculture emerged as one of the hardest-hit sectors, crucial for both local consumption and export. Dr. Henry noted that the seven parishes most affected by the storm account for 74% of the land used for domestic crop production, significantly impacting livestock and export crop farming as well.

Losses in agriculture include damaged access roads, farmland, livestock, and fishing gear, creating a ripple effect on food supply and local economies. The PIOJ’s assessment indicates that this quarter could reflect Jamaica’s worst economic performance in recent years, a worrying sign for both policymakers and citizens.

Despite these challenges, Dr. Henry expressed cautious optimism regarding the nation’s recovery. He stated, “The economy is expected to return to growth in the October-December 2026 quarter,” as efforts to repair and reconstruct the affected areas intensify. This forecast offers a glimmer of hope for a nation grappling with the immediate aftermath of a catastrophic event.

As Jamaica navigates this economic tumult, the focus will shift toward recovery strategies and resilience-building measures to prepare for future natural disasters. The government, alongside various stakeholders, will need to prioritize infrastructure restoration and support for the agricultural sector to facilitate a robust recovery in the years ahead.