Simulation Predicts Civil War Risk from Current ICE Actions

Recent research indicates that the current operations of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in Minneapolis could potentially trigger extreme civil unrest. A simulation conducted by the Center for Ethics and the Rule of Law (CERL) at the University of Pennsylvania in October 2024 explored a hypothetical scenario where federal law enforcement actions lead to violent confrontations between state and federal forces.

In this simulation, a fictional president ordered a controversial federal law enforcement operation in a major city. The president attempted to federalize the Pennsylvania National Guard to support the operation, which the state governor resisted. As state troops aligned with the governor, the situation escalated, prompting the fictional president to deploy acting U.S. military troops to intervene in the conflict.

Claire Finkelstein, director of CERL, explained that the war gaming exercise included input from actual government officials and former senior military leaders. Notably, none of the participants dismissed the scenario as unrealistic. The simulation found that in the face of a rapidly evolving civil emergency, courts would likely be ineffective in curbing federal overreach.

While the early stages of this simulation bear resemblance to the actions of ICE agents in Minneapolis, a significant difference exists: local and state officials currently do not appear inclined to engage in direct conflict with federal agents. A 2025 municipal ordinance in Minneapolis prohibits police from cooperating with ICE, although it does not empower them to obstruct federal enforcement.

Governor Tim Walz of Minnesota has urged demonstrators to refrain from acts of civil disobedience as he mobilizes the Minnesota National Guard. This move has raised concerns among some regarding the potential for a physical confrontation with ICE, but officials have clarified that the National Guard’s role would primarily be to maintain order, direct traffic, and protect property during any protests.

As it stands, the notion of substantial official resistance against ICE remains largely theoretical. In practice, state power continues to be directed towards managing protests rather than confronting the federal agents enforcing immigration laws in their communities. The simulations highlight a chilling potential for conflict but underscore the current reality of non-cooperation rather than armed resistance among municipal and state service members.