Rose Byrne Emerges as Dark Horse for Best Actress at Oscars 2026

The race for the Best Actress award at the 2026 Academy Awards is heating up, with Jessie Buckley viewed as the frontrunner. Yet, a surprising challenge could come from Rose Byrne, a first-time Oscar nominee whose performance in Mary Bronstein’s dramedy, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, has garnered significant attention. As the awards season unfolds, the potential for an upset looms large.

Byrne portrays a mother struggling under the weight of her responsibilities, a character that resonates with audiences. Critics initially questioned whether her role as a caretaker grappling with personal turmoil would even secure her a nomination. However, Byrne’s compelling portrayal has earned her a place among the nominees, supported by an extensive campaign that rallied endorsements from notable colleagues, including Kristen Wiig and Glenn Close. Her Neighbors and Platonic co-star Seth Rogen has also voiced his support, praising her dedication and fearless approach to acting.

Despite Byrne’s achievements, Buckley has dominated the precursor awards, claiming victories at the Golden Globe, Critics Choice Award, and BAFTA. With her film earning eight nominations, including Best Picture, conventional wisdom suggests that Buckley is the clear front-runner. Yet, the Best Actress category has a history of surprising outcomes, making it difficult to predict the final result.

The unpredictability of this category can be illustrated by past winners. In 2019, Olivia Colman triumphed over Glenn Close, while Frances McDormand took home the award in 2021, defeating Viola Davis. The Academy has a tendency to favor performances that break the mold, evidenced by the fact that two actors have won the award in a tie: Barbra Streisand and Katharine Hepburn in 1969. This history of curveballs means that voters could very well opt for Byrne, especially if they wish to pivot away from Buckley’s string of victories.

One intriguing aspect of this year’s Oscars is the potential connection between Byrne and the show’s host, Conan O’Brien, who plays her therapist in If I Had Legs. O’Brien has expressed enthusiasm for the possibility of Byrne winning, jokingly preparing for celebratory antics should the occasion arise.

As the Academy Awards approach on March 15, 2026, the excitement around the Best Actress race continues to build. While Buckley’s accolades suggest a strong chance of victory, the Academy’s penchant for surprises keeps the door open for Byrne to pull off a remarkable upset.

For those eager to follow the action, the Vanity Fair Oscar Party livestream will air directly after the Academy Awards, featuring hosts Quenlin Blackwell, Jake Shane, and Brittany Broski. The event starts at 10:30 p.m. ET and 7:30 p.m. PT, promising a night filled with glamour and surprises.