Oscars 2024: “Sinners” Leads with 4 Potential Wins as Betting Surges

UPDATE: The race for the 98th Academy Awards is heating up as bettors place millions on the outcome of this year’s Oscars, airing on March 15, 2024. Current odds from prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket indicate that the supernatural thriller “Sinners” is favored to win a staggering four Oscars, while both “One Battle After Another” and “Frankenstein” are projected to take home three each.

Bettors have wagered over $10 million on various categories since the nominees were announced on January 22. The stakes have never been higher, with predictions in 24 categories drawing significant attention from media and regulators alike. The event will be hosted by Conan O’Brien and streamed on ABC and Hulu.

In the highly competitive Best Picture category, “One Battle After Another” stands as the frontrunner at a remarkable 67% chance of winning, according to betting platforms. The odds for “Sinners” follow at 24%, making it a close second.

Best Director appears to be a lock for Paul Thomas Anderson, with a commanding mid-to-high 80% chance of victory. Meanwhile, Timothée Chalamet is the clear favorite for Best Actor, boasting a mid-70% probability, while Jessie Buckley has an impressive 88-89% chance of securing the Best Actress award for her role in “Hamnet”.

The category of Best Cinematography sees “Sinners” as the top contender, with odds around 66%. In contrast, “Frankenstein” is heavily favored for Best Production Design, with odds exceeding 80%. Additionally, “One Battle After Another” is also expected to clinch Best Adapted Screenplay with a whopping 90% chance.

For the technical categories, Apple’s sports drama “F1” is poised to win Best Sound, with an 80% likelihood. Meanwhile, the Best Animated Short Film category is more uncertain; “Butterfly” holds a moderate 40% chance, with “The Girl Who Cried Pearls” trailing closely behind.

The betting landscape also highlights strong contenders for other categories: Best Visual Effects is dominated by “Avatar: Fire and Ash”, with more than 90% odds of winning, while “Sinners” is expected to take home both Best Original Score and Best Original Screenplay, with odds above 80% for both.

The emotional impact of these films is palpable, with contenders like “All the Empty Rooms”—a documentary short about school shooting victims—garnering a 55% chance of winning. As the Oscars approach, the excitement and anticipation continue to build, making this a pivotal moment in the film industry.

As the clock ticks down to the awards, all eyes will be on these films and performances. Fans and bettors alike are eagerly awaiting the results, and the coming days promise to be filled with speculation and excitement. Stay tuned for the latest updates as the Oscars draw near!